Dichev / Janes
Lunar Cycle Effects in Stock Returns reports new-moon-period returns above full-moon-period returns across major indexes. Open the dedicated source check.
Market anomaly claim check
Check the citation trail before repeating a viral market chart.
Send one market anomaly claim, chart, post, or backtest. TinyOps checks the source trail, separates academic evidence from social-media framing, flags missing methodology, and returns publish-safe caveats. This is research verification only. No investment advice.
What arrives
A short source packet that is ready to cite or reject.
The check is built for newsletters, research notes, social posts, and internal reviews that need a clear source trail before a claim spreads.
- One-paragraph verdict on what the cited evidence does and does not support
- Primary or academic source links separated from social-media framing
- Methodology questions to ask before treating a chart as replicated
- Publish-safe caveat wording that avoids trading advice
Example screen
Moon-phase stock-market claims have citations, but still need exact replication.
Academic papers report lower returns around full moons than new moons in some broad samples. That does not make a viral chart a trading strategy. The check separates source support from unsupported performance framing.
Yuan / Zheng / Zhu
Are investors moonstruck? reports lower returns around full moon than new moon in a multi-country sample published in the Journal of Empirical Finance.
Floros / Tan
Moon Phases, Mood and Stock Market Returns finds market-specific full and new moon effects, with calendar-anomaly interactions.
Current replication
The quick ETF check is mixed, not a clean signal.
The latest TinyOps replication ran on May 28, 2026 using SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM adjusted closes through May 28, 2026. The broad half-cycle split showed new-moon-period annualized means above full-moon-period means, but weak Welch t-statistics and no displayed result survived Bonferroni adjustment. The tighter +/- 3 day window was mixed, including QQQ lower around new moon than full moon.
- SPY half-cycle: +6.22 percentage points new minus full, Welch t 0.96
- QQQ +/- 3 day window: -5.44 percentage points new minus full, Welch t -0.34
- IWM +/- 3 day window: +10.07 percentage points new minus full, Welch t 0.68
- Result: citation-worthy curiosity, not public trading advice
Boundary
Research verification only. No investment advice.
This check does not tell anyone what to buy, sell, hold, short, copy, or trade. It answers whether the claim has credible source support, which parts need replication, and how to phrase the caveat.
- No trade alerts or strategy recommendations
- No guaranteed-return or performance claims
- No nonpublic information
- No portfolio routing or broker activity
- No customer trade execution, account setup, or portfolio routing
Congress claims
For politician-stock claims, start with the tracker.
The tracker keeps public House PTR ticker rows, named claim status, source links, and filing-lag caveats together before a viral market claim becomes public copy.
Request the check
Send the claim, chart, and source link.
Use this for a fit check. If the claim is in scope, TinyOps returns next steps and the source-check packet path.
Need a publish-safe answer